You are treating a 52-year-old woman with a 40-pack-year history of smoking. She reports a productive cough that has been present for the last 3 to 4 months, beginning in the fall. She remembers having the same symptoms last year in the fall, and attributed it to a “cold that she just couldn’t kick.” She does not have fevers, reports mild dyspnea when walking up stairs, and denies hemoptysis. Which of the following is the most likely diagnosis?