A 63-year-old man who had worsening congestive heart failure with cardiac dysrhythmias for the past year of his life died of pneumonia. At autopsy, his pancreas is grossly small and densely fibrotic. Microscopic examination shows extensive atrophy of the acini with residual chronic inflammation, fibrosis, and inspissated protein plugs in small, obstructed pancreatic ducts. Some of the protein plugs show calcification. The islets of Langerhans appear normal. The heart weighs 500 g, and all four chambers are dilated. Which of the following conditions is most likely to account for his findings?