An 18-year-old man develops fever, neck stiffness, and headache. On examination, his blood pressure is 105/80 mm Hg, pulse 100/min, temperature 38.7°C, and neck flexion is very painful. The ears, throat, and sinuses are normal; there are no focal neurologic signs, and the remaining examination is normal. His is the second case of meningitis in his university dormitory building. Which of the following is the most likely causative organism?