A 25-year-old man presents to the clinic with a 1-year history of functional decline and psychotic symptoms. He presents with third-person auditory hallucinations that give a running commentary on his thoughts and actions, bizarre delusions, including believing that he is the father of the Queen of England, and describes thought withdrawal. He displays formal thought disorder, with derailment and neologisms prominent. He has experienced recurrent episodes of mood disturbance for extended periods over the past 2 years and currently displays features of mania. He intermittently uses cannabis and previously used amphetamines, but stopped 6 months ago. What is the probable diagnosis?